On Wednesday, the Anaheim Ducks appear that they had active centre Ryan Kelser to a six-year arrangement extension. As per club policy, banking agreement were not disclosed, but account later, Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register had the details:
Kesler had one year larboard on his accepted arrangement and would accept been a chargeless abettor aing summer, which bureau his new accord will booty aftereffect alpha in the 2016-17 NHL season. Kesler turns 31 in August, so he’ll comedy his aboriginal d on his new arrangement at age 32 and complete it at 37.
It’s a massive accident for the Ducks, and it’s evocative of the old canicule in the NHL, back players didn’t hit chargeless bureau until age 31. As a result, abounding players hit the jackpot contract-wise aloof as the atomic able years of their corresponding arena careers.
Kesler looks set to chase in that pattern. His scoring is already eroding; his three affliction seasons in agreement of credibility per hour at five-on-five back breaking into the alliance abounding time in 2005-06 accept all happened in the aftermost four years. The abandoned exception, 2012-13, saw Kesler comedy aloof 17 games.
Looking at Kesler’s 11-season career, it neatly break into three segments of almost according length:
The best absorbing account on that blueprint is the final column, which shows area Kesler’s scoring ranks amid all NHL assiduously (min. 1,200 account per segment, which produces 12-13 assiduously per team).
As Kesler bankrupt into the league, he produced at almost a third-line rate, which makes faculty as he formed his way up the abyss blueprint from the bottom. In the affection of his career, he was a accepted first-line advanced (30 teams in the NHL equals 90 first-line forwards) in agreement of even-strength scoring.
That’s afflicted over the aftermost four years. At a amount of 1.34 points/hour, it puts Kesler in a tie for 264th amid NHL assiduously over that span, agreement him at the aforementioned akin of assembly as Mike Richards, Patrick Eaves and Daniel Briere over that stretch. He’s scoring at a amount archetypal of a No. 9 advanced for an boilerplate NHL team.
Now, to be sure, Kesler does added things. He’s an accomplished arresting player. He contributes on both appropriate teams units. He plays a gritty, concrete game. He is added than the sum of his scoring totals.
But his scoring totals are like the accepted bare in a atramentous mine: They acquaint us that Kesler is not aloof entering his crumbling years as a player—he’s absolutely able-bodied into them already. The abrasion of his scoring is acceptable to be followed by declines in added areas of his game.
This arrangement is a massive accident for the Ducks in the faculty that the aggregation is committing continued appellation to a crumbling player. But it’s absolutely alike worse than that. Based on his scoring, a $6.875 actor cap hit is an overpay in the actuality and now. By the age of 37, it may able-bodied be an overpay of banana proportion.
Statistics address of NHL.com and war-on-ice.com.
Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for added of his work.
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