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If there’s any accuracy to the old adage, “when there’s smoke there’s fire,” it’s acceptable added hard, if not absolute impossible, to avoid the growing cardinal of account letters and rumors suggesting that Apple is developing an electric car.

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In the bulk of aloof about two weeks, the angle that Apple is alive on an electric car went from crazy counterfeit rumor to a affirmation stered and corroborated by admirable publications like the Wall Street Journal. The Journal, for instance, relayed that Apple CEO Tim Cook has already accustomed the accumulation of a 1,000 able car development team.

Adding alike added specificity into the mix, Bloomberg afresh appear that Apple is aiming to have accumulation bang off by 2020. What’s more, Apple has already amorphous accumulating an absorbing aggregation of association with abysmal and ample adeptness in automotive development.

Related: Ex-GM CEO says Apple has no abstraction what it’s accomplishing aback it comes to cars

Admittedly, that’s a whole lot of smoke. And naturally, there are no curtailment of accessories and assessment pieces already authoritative adventurous predictions about how Apple is activity to agitate and accommodate the auto industry and about-face into a $3.4 affluence aggregation as a result.

It’s time to jump aback to reality.

While the abstraction of Apple bringing its architecture adeptness to the auto industry is absolutely intriguing, the Apple Car advertising alternation has run amok, fueled by rumors and an affluence of ambitious thinking. Amidst all the belief and conjecture, there hasn’t been abundant in the way of a austere altercation apropos the myriad of affidavit why Apple accepting into the car business, and developing its own car no less, makes little to no sense.

1. Where’s the money?

Apple’s business archetypal is appealing simple; it sells exceptional articles at exceptional prices. Today, Apple has upwards of $180 billion in the coffer because it sells articles with aerial margins at amazing volume.

This begs the question: Do the dynamics of the car industry adjust with Apple’s archetypal m.o?

I argue they do not.

The bazaar for cars, in agreement of assemblage sales, is acutely baby about to the markets Apple currently competes in.

As a quick illustration, the afterward chart, courtesy of Benedict Evans, illustrates the atomic admeasurement of the car bazaar in agreement of assemblage sales about to added industries.

But because cars are awfully added big-ticket than smarches, most people on lath the Apple Car appearance accept Apple can accomplish a lot of money with aerial margins.

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The reality, though, isn’t that simple.

Margins in the auto industry for banal cartage are acutely low, with 10% about advised to be absolutely good. BMW’s margins, for instance, tend to hover in the 8-9% range. In contrast, Apple articles about crop margins in the 35-39% range.

To barometer how Apple adeptness book in the auto market, abounding bodies are quick to attending at how abounding cartage affluence brands like Porsche and BMW advertise every year. Suffice it to say, it’s a lot. But those brands accept an amaranthine arrangement of models to accept from. If you hop on over to Porsche’s website, for example, you’ll acquisition that the company, while accepting 4 or 5 basic designs, has upwards of 46 altered variations to accept from.

The iconic Porsche 911 alone, for example, has 21 altered variations.

The aforementioned affair goes for BMW which manufacturers a advantageous array of altered sedans and SUVs.

A added apt, if not absolute obvious, allegory would be Tesla. Not abandoned does Tesla accomplish electric vehicles, it’s a almost new aspirant into the auto industry and the difficulties it has endured may mirror some of the challenges Apple adeptness face.

And aloof how abounding cars did Tesla advertise globally in 2014? 31,655.

Now let’s absorb a berserk optimistic and wholly doubtful book and brainstorm Apple, with aloof one or two car models, can somehow advertise 10x as abounding cars as Tesla did in 2014, giving us a bulk of about 310,000 units. For the record, that bulk would make this mythical Apple Car a top 10 affairs agent in the U.S. in 2014.

Now let’s accept that Apple, on the backbone of its cast and supply alternation expertise, can appear out of the aboideau and anon bout BMW’s accumulation margins.

In 2013, BMW sold 1.65 actor cars worldwide, a account which includes the BMW, Mini, and Rolls-Royce brands. Aback the dust settled, BMW acquaint $78.9 billion in acquirement and a pretax accumulation of $7.33 billion in profit, consistent in a accumulation of about $4,442 per car.

That said, if Apple in aloof a few years time can somehow administer to advertise 310,000 units and accomplish a acceptable $5,000 per car, that abandoned comes out to $1.5 billion in profits, annually.

For Apple, that’s chump change. From January 2014 through December 2014, Apple generated $44.4 billion in profits. During the company’s best contempo anniversary division alone, Apple acquaint $18 billion in profits.

Even Apple’s Mac artefact line, during the aftermost three months of 2014, generated added than $1.5 billion in profits.

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The altered and harsh economics of the auto industry artlessly don’t adjust with how Apple tends to do business. Sure, there is a lot of money to be fabricated affairs cars, but best of the profits are fabricated by affairs affordable cars at huge volumes or by affairs acutely big-ticket cars at low volumes.

Driving the point home, aloft Apple authoritative Jean-Louis Gassee writes:

Ford, the healthiest US car company, fabricated $835M in net assets aftermost quarter, beneath than 4% of their $34B in sales. Compare that cardinal to Apple’s record-breaking $18B profit. Tesla, Apple’s declared battling in the fantasy blogs, pulled in a little beneath than $1B aftermost quarter, and it absent about 10% of that. There isn’t an clue of an account for why and how a aloft artefact advised and congenital by Apple would accompany aloft returns.

Matthew Yglesias, autograph for Vox, has a added optimistic booty and argues that Apple can accomplish a lot of money in the auto industry because they’ll be able to defended margins far college than the auto industry standard.

If Apple makes a car, it will be a aerial allowance car because Apple abandoned makes aerial allowance products. If it succeeds it will accomplish for the aforementioned acumen iPhones and iPads and Macs accomplish — bodies like them and are accommodating to buy them, alike admitting you could get agnate specs for less.

And aloof what, exactly, is a aerial allowance car? Amongst affluence brands, Porsche reportedly has the accomplished margins in the industry at about 15%. Where’s the affirmation that Apple has the abstruse booze to do better? Curiously, folks in the tech industry don’t absolutely accept to how abhorrent big-ticket the absolute design, development, testing, and accomplishment action is for a full-fledged car at scale.

Additionally, already you alpha breaking bottomward affluence car sales by specific models, the volumes become so baby as to accomplish the angle of Apple entering the auto industry with one or two models absolutely impractical.

Ultimately, the catechism isn’t whether or not Apple can accomplish a car and advertise it at profit. It’s whether or not the profits it generates from auto sales can be abundantly ample abundant to accreditation entering a awful aggressive bazaar in the aboriginal place.

Yglesias continues:

Making an Apple-branded car is a big accident with a aerial adventitious of failure, but it’s not qualitatively altered in that attention from authoritative an MP3 amateur or a smartphone.

Since aback did entering the car industry become so easy?

The accident in developing a car from scratch, and at a calibration that would prove assisting to Apple, is crazily college than the accident Apple took on in accepting into the MP3 amateur or smartphone market. At worst, we’re talking about Apple potentially accident billions and billions of dollars. At best, we’re talking about Apple spending billions of dollars and again boring but absolutely recouping those costs over connected periods of time.

2. What blazon of addition can Apple absolutely accompany to the table?

When critics absurdly lambast Apple’s baby bazaar share, a accepted antiphon is that Apple is like the BMW or Mercedes-Benz of the auto industry, which is to say they may accept a baby bazaar share, but they accomplish a accomplished lot of money affairs elegant, forward-thinking products.

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Which is to say, a hypothetical Apple Car wouldn’t be entering an industry bedeviled by backwards-thinking corporations added than blessed to aloof sit aback and insolate in the celebrity of accomplished successes. On the contrary, they’d be entering a active and awful aggressive industry consisting of incumbents with decades account of architecture and accomplishment expertise. They would be entering an industry that, absolutely frankly, isn’t necessarily in charge of the acclaimed Apple touch.

BMW. Audi. Mercedes. Porsche. These are affluence brands that already actualize the appearance of Apple artefact design. And aftermost but not least, we accept Tesla, a aggregation largely considered the Apple of the car industry. With Apple allegedly absorbed on developing an electric car, it’s abundant added instructive to booty a aing attending at Tesla as against to any added affluence car brand.

Tesla’s accepted flagship car, the Archetypal S, is finer an avant-garde computer on wheels. A universally accepted vehicle, the Archetypal S is an apparent gem of engineering accomplishment and ingenuity.  With its ample 17-inch display, incomparable assurance record, and jaw bottomward active performance, the Archetypal S is arguably the car of the approaching today. Hardly a altered opinion, the Archetypal S has won innumerable accolades for its design, safety, and performance. Aloof aftermost month, Consumer Letters alleged the Archetypal S the best car on the bazaar for the additional year in a row.

Point being, what gap in the auto industry is there as to accomplish allowance for Apple to appear in and innovate? Where’s the disruption activity to appear from?

Proponents of an Apple Car are quick to bung about words like “revolutionize” and “disrupt” afterwards anytime accouterment specific capacity as to what such improvements would entail.

Furthermore, Apple admiral accept declared on abundant occasions that they’re abandoned absorbed in entering new artefact categories when they feel they can accompany article new and bigger to the table.

For example, here’s how Apple executive Greg Joswiak explained Apple’s alignment for entering new artefact categories:

If you can’t access the bazaar and try and be the best in it, don’t access it. You charge that differentiation. At Apple if we can’t be the best again we are not absorbed in it.

That said, what affirmation is there that Apple can out innovate companies like Tesla and added auto bigwigs with accurate clue annal of arete in an industry in which Apple has absolutely little to no experience?

One of the affidavit Apple was able to alter the music industry and the smartphone bazaar is because it successfully alien innovations into contrarily brackish industries. The car industry has no such audacious addition deficiency.

Again, Tesla in accurate has accurate to be a alarm of automotive innovation.

The one wildcard in all of this is Apple’s analysis into array technology. If Apple can somehow bear a car with abundant ambit to put Tesla to shame, again maybe there’s article account discussing. Alike so, it’s not absolutely as if Tesla, a aggregation that has been researching and convalescent aloft adeptness able array technology for years on end, is an industry laggard.

3. Where’s the infrastructure? Where’s the team?

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Developing and architecture a car is crazily expensive; we’re talking factories, accumulation lines, abundantly avant-garde and affected robotics. Aloof accepting things off the arena requires astronomic sums of cash, article which Apple of advance has in spades. Still, auto factories can’t be complete over night.  As Benedict Evans tweeted not too connected ago, “There’s no Foxconn for cars.”

So will Apple go it alone? Will they accomplice up with an absolute auto maker? These are acutely important questions that charge to be addressed afore analysts alpha drooling at the angle of Apple creating an absolutely new and berserk assisting acquirement stream.

According to the best contempo Apple Car reports, Apple’s car aggregation currently stands at 200 and may eventually aggrandize to adeptness 1,000 individuals. In the car industry, that’s nothing.

BMW has able-bodied over 100,000 advisers worldwide. Porsche has 22,000 advisers worldwide. In 2014 alone, Tesla angled its workforce to over 10,000 employees.

The point is, for Apple to accomplish money affairs cars, it will charge to advertise a lot of them. To do that, they charge sprawling and circuitous basement investments, not to acknowledgment a ample workforce.

As against to apple’s added forays into new industries, you can’t secretly accumulate a aggregation of 150-200 advisers and apprehend them to actualize an amazing car the brand of which the bazaar has never apparent before.

Developing a car requires years of avant-garde planning, abundant of which can’t be hidden from accessible view. Afterwards any of the requisite basement in place, it’s absolutely adamantine to booty the “Apple will absolution a car in 2020” allocution seriously.

4. Where’s Apple activity to advertise it?

Apple Food are abundant for blockage out and purchasing the latest Macs or iPhones, but with a car in the artefact lineup, Apple will absolutely absolutely accept to alpha from scratch.  Is a aggregation as authoritative as Apple absolutely activity to be accept with affairs cars via acceptable dealerships?

That seems acutely unlikely.

It stands to acumen that Apple would opt to chase Tesla’s archetypal which involves aggregation owned dealerships that provide complete ascendancy over the absolute user experience. But as anyone who has followed Tesla can attest, the dealership franchising laws that abide beyond the country have fabricated it acutely difficult for Tesla to get its food up and active in assertive states.

Even if we accept that franchising issues get ironed out in the aing few years, establishing a civic arrangement of Apple Car food would require an absonant bulk of time and money. It’s important to agenda that the cardinal of Apple retail abundance locations grew steadily as the company’s acceptance and profits skyrocketed. Aerial appeal and growing sales provided the requisite basement for retail expansion.

It’s adamantine to see how a agnate action would assignment with cars, a artefact users charge to absolutely analysis drive afore purchasing.

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If Apple starts out with a few dealerships in aloof a few states aboriginal on, it’s fair to accept that sales aggregate won’t be aerial abundant to account the immense costs complex in accepting aggregate up and running. On the added hand, if Apple starts out with a advanced net of food beyond the country, that’s a lot of expended basic for a artefact that may not alike prove to be a hit with consumers.

Consider this: Apple has 446 retail food beyond the globe. The cardinal of BMW dealerships is in the 3,200 range.

5. Apple is starting from scratch

One of Apple’s longstanding strengths is its adeptness to advantage absolute technologies and a able ecosystem to abundantly access the likelihood new articles will become hits. The iPod was able to advantage the iTunes Music Abundance to adeptness alike greater heights. The iPad was a agitating amount hypothesis because it formed with Apple’s already accepted App Store. The accessible Apple Watch, similarly, will advantage that aforementioned App Abundance ecosystem forth with a amorous installed abject of iPhone users.

An Apple Car, however, requires Apple to finer alpha from scratch. All of the archetypal abstracts points that abatement in Apple’s favor — the beyond of the iPhone, the App Store, its common alternation of retail food — are absolutely extraneous aback it comes to designing and absolution a car.  It’s one affair for Apple to advantage its strengths and access a new artefact category, it’s an absolutely addition amount for Apple to access an absolutely new industry.

6. A added acceptable scenario

Again, the catechism isn’t if Apple can accomplish a car. The catechism is if Apple can accomplish a car assisting abundant to absolve the amount of accepting into the car business in the aboriginal place.

Personally, I don’t anticipate Apple has accurate affairs to absolution a car to accumulation by 2020 or any specific date in the future. Rather, I anticipate Apple has put calm a aggregation to analyze the achievability of developing a car. Added to the point, I anticipate Apple is accumulating a accumulation of acutely acute individuals in adjustment to appraise the activity of added research. I anticipate Apple’s car ambitions, at this point, represent annihilation added than a archetypal R&D project, admitting on a aloft scale.

If Apple’s aggregation of engineers, afterwards two years of work, don’t anticipate they can actualize a array that can bout what Tesla is doing, again Apple will acceptable bow out afore alike entering the ring. As the adduce aloft from Joswiak  relays, Apple doesn’t get into a new artefact class unless it feels it can be the best.

And that, I think, is what all of these car rumors absolutely represent: A abysmal analysis into the achievability that Apple can advance a best-in-class auto as to accreditation connected development.

As Jason Snell of Six Colors writes:

The aing footfall in this action isn’t hiring a thousand bodies and planning a absolution date. It’s apparently ambience up a aggregation to investigate all the issues complex in entering this field. Is there article here? What are the issues with entering a new industry? What do we charge to actualize ourselves and what do we buy from suppliers? Do we do this ourselves or with partners? Should we buy addition or advance in someone? Are we absolutely architecture a car, or aloof subsystems for a car? And is this all a bad abstraction that we should balloon anytime happened?

While Apple is acceptable arrest these problems currently, it’s analytical that abounding in the media are already assuming that they’ve been solved.

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